So for this week’s essay at Mexico Decoded, I went looking for evidence of that.

I pulled approval data from three of Mexico’s most widely cited pollsters (Enkoll, Mitovsky, and El Financiero) and compared where each leader stood among 61 demographic and political groups: gender, age, occupation, home state, issue priorities, party identification, and 2024 vote choice. To put them on equal footing, I normalized their approval figures so the comparison is about the shape of their coalitions, not just their overall numbers. The baseline for AMLO is his final months in office (August–September 2024), and for Sheinbaum is her most recent readings (January–February 2026). I only flagged differences that are statistically significant.

What came back is not what the conventional wisdom would predict.

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The problem is that the article contained multiple substantive errors that do not reflect the most recent economic studies in Mexico, but instead repeat dogmas that have been circulating for decades.

So I decided to dedicate this post to doing something we rarely do at Mexico Decoded: clarifying many of the errors made by The Economist based on academic evidence.

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1. AMLO Comes Out of Retirement

Former Mexican President López Obrador resurfaced this weekend to rally supporters to deposit money into a Mexican bank account allegedly aimed at sending humanitarian aid to Cuba, amidst growing tensions between the Caribbean island and the US.

DECODED: Unlike Sheinbaum, who faces the restraint of being Mexican head of State, AMLO can do a direct call to action without worrying about provoking Donald Trump’s wrath. However, his attitude does place the current President in a tight spot as T-MEC negotiations are underway.

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2. Government Coalition Shows Fractures

The original Electoral Reform presented by Sheinbaum was shut down in the Mexican Congress, facing rejection even from her government’s allies, PT and PVEM. The President opted for a “Plan B”, which is backed by her coalition, but discarded the most polemic proposals: reducing funding for political parties and changing the proportional representation system.

DECODED: Morena was unable to reach the votes needed to pass the original Electoral Reform, which shows the official party has weakened in the coalition while its allies have gained strength. This is key for the 2027 federal elections, in which the Chamber of Deputies and some state governors will be up for grabs.

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3. Mexico’s Trade Gap Narrows

Mexico’s trade surplus with the US dropped 20% during the first month of 2026, compared to the same month in 2025, totaling 10.9 billion USD. This is the biggest drop registered since 2009, excluding the pandemic period.

DECODED: The narrowing trade surplus is driven by a surge in Mexican imports of U.S. goods, even as exports to the U.S. also rose. With the dollar weaker, Mexican products are becoming more competitive abroad, boosting export volumes.

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4. Secretary of Public Security Appears On... Towels

Mexican Security Secretary, Omar Garcia Harfuch, has become an unexpected heartthrob, particularly among women. Markets now sell towels, dolls, blankets, and even cardboard cut-outs of him (shirtless or as Batman), as vendors capitalize on his rising popularity.

DECODED: Harfuch’s merchandising campaign points to a growing popularity that could result in a Presidential candidacy in 2030. This wouldn’t be the first time a male political figure has risen due to his appearance. This happened in 2012 with former President Peña Nieto.

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5. Mexico Becomes Older

The number of working Mexicans between the ages of 15 and 24 years is expected to decline in absolute terms during 2026. The country’s demographic shows an increase in the population aged 65+, growing by about 800k people annually.

DECODED: Companies may have to adapt to employing and retaining older workers, and compete against informal work schemes which offer more flexibility and daily pay. Some solutions, said Adecco, are using IA for talent recruitment and offering on-demand wages.

Mexico City has no shortage of beautiful breakfasts. But many visitors never quite see the one the city actually eats.

Foreign visitors often begin their mornings at places like Café Rosetta or Café Toscano, or inside the polished dining rooms of boutique hotels all of which are removed from how most people in Mexico actually begin their day.

Real Mexico City breakfasts tend to happen standing up on a sidewalk with the noise of traffic all around. Most of them are quick, inexpensive, and deeply rooted in everyday Mexican food culture. They are the breakfasts of office workers, taxi drivers, students rushing to class, and vendors opening their stalls before sunrise.

So Mexico Decoded put together a small guide to five of the most Mexican street breakfasts you can find in Mexico City.

All of them are within walking distance of the tourist zones of Roma, Condesa, and Reforma. Yet each one offers something visitors rarely.

1. Tamales & Atole

The first stop belongs to one of Mexico’s oldest breakfast traditions: tamales with atole. Tamales are small packets of corn dough steamed inside corn husks or plantain leaves, usually filled with meat, sauce, cheese, or vegetables. Think of them less as a pastry and more as a dense, savory corn dumpling. They are warm, filling, and designed for mornings when people need something substantial before a long commute.

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They are usually paired with atole, a thick hot drink also made from corn dough and flavored with chocolate, vanilla, rice, or fruit. It has the texture of a thin porridge and the comforting warmth of hot chocolate.

Bonus: For the full Mexico City experience, locals sometimes ask for their tamal inside a bolillo bread roll, creating what might be the world’s most unapologetically heavy breakfast sandwich: the legendary *guajolota*.

Where to find it

A stand on Av. Álvaro Obregón, near Valladolid, sells tamales and atole Monday through Saturday, from about 7:30–8:00 AM until noon. Atole is usually available in chocolate and another flavor that changes daily, such as guava, oatmeal, cajeta, or strawberry. Tamales include green, red, rajas, sweet, and mole varieties. The vendor also sells *café de olla*, a traditional Mexican coffee flavored with cinnamon and piloncillo.

Price range

Tamales $25–30 MXP

Atole $20–25 MXP

2. Chilaquiles

Another morning staple is chilaquiles. If tamales are portable comfort food, chilaquiles are Mexico’s answer to the hangover breakfast. Tortilla chips are simmered briefly in either red or green salsa until they soften while retaining some crunch. They are then topped with cream, cheese, onions, and often chicken or a fried egg. The result is bright, tangy, and pleasantly spicy.

Where to find it

Near Reforma Avenue and Varsovia Street, close to the Ángel de la Independencia, a street stand serves chilaquiles with red or green sauce and the protein of your choice, including sirloin or breaded chicken breast. The stand also sells tortas, pan dulce, and flavored coffees. They operate two stands: one on the corner of Avenida Reforma and another, where food is cooked directly on the grill, in front of the Varsovia Theater.

Price range

Chilaquiles $50 MXP

Pan dulce $25–30 MXP

Sandwiches, bagels, tortas, and chapatas $60–80 MXP

Coffee $25–35 MXP

3. Pan Dulce & Coffee

Then there is perhaps the most common breakfast of all: pan dulce and coffee. It is the meal of people running late for work. A quick stop at a bakery cart, a sweet bread wrapped in paper, and a cup of coffee to wake you up.

Pan dulce simply means “sweet bread,” but the variety is vast. The most recognizable is the concha, a soft bun topped with a sugar crust patterned like a seashell. Others include jam-filled pastries called besos

, donuts, churros, and buttery biscuits. Compared with French pastry, pan dulce tends to be softer and more bread-like, with a fluffy interior and a lightly sweet flavor.

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Warning: Visitors expecting carefully brewed espresso should probably stay away from morning street stands. Most vendors prepare coffee using instant powder dissolved in hot water, then add sugar and evaporated milk. The result is sweeter and lighter than the coffee most Americans are used to.

Where to find it

There’s a stand on Genova, between Liverpool and Londres, selling sandwiches, pan dulce, coffee, fruit salads, gelatin cups, and ready-to-go cereal bowls. It sits right outside the Kentucky Fried Chicken and operates Monday through Sunday from 5 AM to around 11 AM.

Price range

Coffee $15–17 MXP

Pan dulce $15 MXP

Fruit $25–30 MXP

4. Sandwiches & Tortas

Another breakfast that visitors recognize immediately—but often misunderstand slightly—is the world of sandwiches and tortas. These are common at food stands across Mexico City because they offer a quick and complete meal: some protein, some carbohydrates, and at least a token amount of vegetables.

Most vendors prepare them using bolillo, a crusty roll that turns the sandwich into a torta. Others use sliced bread, baguettes, or croissants. Fillings are usually simple: cheese, ham, or chicken breast.

At first glance they look familiar, but Mexican tortas are not quite the same as American sandwiches. The bread is sturdier and built to absorb sauces and fillings. Flavors often include avocado, pickled jalapeños, and tangy condiments.

Warning: Mexican street sandwiches usually contain less filling than visitors expect. They are often mostly bread and are commonly made with sliced sandwich bread.

Where to find it

At the intersection of Genova and Liverpool, near the Insurgentes metro station, a stand sells sandwiches alongside fruit cups with yogurt or cream, salads, and pastries. It is open Monday through Saturday from 6 AM until around 10:30 or 11 AM.

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Price range

Sandwiches $50–55 MXP

Fruit $60–65 MXP

Salad $85 MXP

5. Juices & Fresh Fruit

Fresh juices function as both breakfast and morning reset. Mexico City’s juice culture is remarkable. Street vendors blend combinations that feel closer to nutritional formulas than beverages: orange with pineapple and ginger, apple with celery and spinach, or strawberry with beet.

Where to find it

A vendor in Condesa on Colima Street, near the intersection with Avenida Oaxaca and Valladolid—right in front of a Banorte bank—serves a wide range of juices and milkshakes made fresh to order. Don Benjamín is open from 6 AM to 4 PM Monday through Friday, and Saturdays from 6 AM to noon. Another location operates at San Luis Potosí and Medellín in Roma Norte from 7 AM to 5 PM on weekdays and until 2 PM on Saturdays.

Price range

Juices $30–50 MXP

Mexico City is a place where extraordinary restaurants exist at every level of formality. But some of the city’s most authentic culinary experiences happen on sidewalks.

If you are visiting the city, by all means enjoy the cafés. But one morning, skip the reservation. Walk a few blocks. Follow the smell of coffee, corn, or fresh bread.

That is how Mexico City actually wakes up.

1. Trump’s Loyalist Summit

President Donald Trump launched the “Shield of the Americas”, a coalition of 17 Latin American countries, mostly with right-wing governments, pledging cooperation to combat drug trafficking, migration, and China’s presence in the region. Mexico was not present at the summit.

Decoded:

The meeting was less significant than it may appear. The governments represented account for only about 30.2 percent of Latin America’s GDP. Trump took a jab at Mexico saying it was the “epicenter” of cartel violence; Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum replied that her government stands against US Military intervention to eradicate said violence.

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2. Thousands March for Women’s Rights

Thousands of Mexican women and girls marched in dozens of cities all over Mexico, during International Women’s Day to demand justice for femicide victims, legal abortion and labor rights. President Sheinbaum spent the day leading a ceremony honoring women in the armed forces.

Decoded:

Sheinbaum did not make the best decision. Women remain a small minority in the armed forces, which also face multiple complaints for human rights violations, including sexual abuse against women. Images of Sheinbaum surrounded by armed men did little to honor the protesters’ demands.

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3. Sheinbaum Considers Postponing Judicial Elections to Reassure Investors

President Sheinbaum has announced she is considering postponing judicial elections by one year, moving them to 2028. The Judicial Branch elections have been criticized by opposition parties and the private sector for weakening judicial independence, due process, and investor confidence.

Decoded:

Holding judicial elections was one of Sheinbaum’s campaign strong suits, meaning her openness to postponing the elections appears aimed at reassuring investors confidence. The move also signals distance from her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who pushed the reform that made the entire judiciary elected in 2025.

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4. Conflict in Iran Could Deliver Mexico a Tax Break

During the first week of the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, the cost of the Mexican Crude Basket went up 32%, with a price of $83.6 dollars per barrel. The Mexican government has announced it will consider cutting down petroleum taxes (IEPS) in order to keep gasoline prices accessible, and lower the impact on inflation.

Decoded:

The strategy to reduce IEPS taxes was implemented in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While it helps contain inflation, it mainly benefits higher income households, which rely more on gasoline for private cars instead of public transport.

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5. Tacubaya Neighborhood Protests Against Gentrification

Inhabitants of Tacubaya, a neighborhood next to Mexico City’s tourist hubs Condesa and Roma, protested rising prices in housing and “unlawful” evictions. They are demanding government action to ensure fair rental practices as the soccer World Cup approaches.

Decoded:

While Mexico City’s government has put into place policies to keep housing affordable, they remain insufficient to effectively address the housing crisis and the touristification of central neighborhoods.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised that, from “day one” of his return to office, he would launch the largest deportation program in American history. He pledged to remove at least one million migrants every year.

Yet, Trump faced an immediate challenge: there weren’t enough border-crossers to deport.

Most deportations regularly take place at the border, when migrants are caught attempting to cross without authorization. By the time Trump returned to power, however, illegal crossings had already fallen to levels not seen since 1970 because, between 2023 and 2024, President Biden barred asylum requests at the border and required immediate detention and removal.

This sharp decline in arrivals meant that, to fulfill his promise, Trump had to shift his focus inward, toward deportations from within the country.

The result has been a sweeping enforcement campaign that reshapes federal power, tests the limits of executive authority, and drives the most ambitious deportation effort in modern American history.

The Four Pillars of Trump’s Deportation Campaign

Trump’s deportation campaign can be understood as built around four central ingredients.

First, it creates a legal framework to justify mass deportations by declaring false emergencies. Trump did so on the first day of his second term by declaring a “national emergency at the border” to “repel the disastrous invasion of our country.”

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He also declared “crime emergencies” in specific cities such as Washington, DC, Chicago, and Los Angeles in order to bypass local sanctuary laws for undocumented immigrants and to justify the use of National Guard troops and regular military forces for immigration enforcement inside the country – something prohibited by federal law.

The second ingredient is expanding the pool of deportable immigrants. The main methodology has been eliminating the various categories of temporary protection granted to migrants of specific nationalities during the administrations of Bush, Obama, and Biden.

The notable growth in the undocumented population living in the United States during Biden’s presidency was largely due to entries through these temporary protection channels. For example, the “Temporary Protected Status” program covered individuals fleeing eight armed conflicts or natural disasters, including citizens of Afghanistan, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.

In total, 1.5 million migrants have lost the temporary protection they received under Biden. Once they lose that protection, they become immediately deportable. They may apply for other forms of authorization, such as green cards, but the requirements are strict and the process can take years.

To further expand the deportable pool, ICE has hired dozens of bounty hunters from a private prison company to identify additional deportable migrants.

The third ingredient of the mass deportation project is repositioning the Border Patrol. Federal law limits Border Patrol operations to the international border and to a zone within 100 miles of it.

However, Trump’s deportation program stations Border Patrol agents throughout the country. In 2025, agents were deployed in cities far from the Mexican border, including Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, DC, Portland, Charlotte, and Minneapolis.

The only thing these cities have in common is that they are governed by Democratic mayors. In effect, this is retaliation against blue localities and states.

Repositioning Border Patrol agents is significant because they have a reputation for being tougher and more aggressive than agents from other agencies. Their training includes apprehending drug traffickers and other violent criminals.

The cities most affected by mass deportation operations have received hundreds of Border Patrol agents working alongside National Guard contingents from several states, as well as agents from ICE, the FBI, the DEA, and five additional federal agencies. Minneapolis alone saw more than 3,000 agents deployed, supposedly to combat corruption in the Somali immigrant community, which Trump demonized.

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In Trump’s second term, the 22,000 Border Patrol agents have effectively been transformed into a roaming, increasingly militarized deportation force operating without authorization from governors in the affected states.

The fourth ingredient of the Trump project is massive spending. The tax legislation approved by Congress on July 4, 2024, titled the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” allocates $170 billion for immigration enforcement. That amount exceeds what every country in the world spends on its armed forces except the United States and China.

The annual budget of the Department of Homeland Security for immigration enforcement doubled between 2025 and 2026. The department is already the largest federal law enforcement agency, larger than the FBI.

Nearly 15,000 federal agents have been reassigned from investigating non-immigration crimes to immigration enforcement. They are no longer investigating cyberattacks, transnational financial crime, drug trafficking, or human trafficking.

In short, there is no shortage of resources to carry out the mass deportation project.

To justify expanded immigration enforcement to the general public, Trump has erased the distinction between immigration and criminality. He constantly insists that his administration is removing violent criminals, “the worst of the worst.”

The reality is very different. Data from Trump’s own government show that fewer than 30 percent of those detained in intensive ICE operations in major cities had been convicted of any crime. Many of those convicted committed low-level infractions, such as traffic violations or immigration-related offenses. They are simply not “the worst of the worst,” as Trump claims. To justify its operations, the administration argues that anyone who enters the country without legal authorization is a criminal.

How Trump Transformed Immigration Enforcement

Trump has also transformed immigration enforcement practices. Under his administration, all migrants caught in raids are detained indefinitely rather than cited and released on bond pending their court hearings, as was the practice under previous administrations. As a result, the detention and transportation system had to be expanded. The number of deportation flights has doubled.

Trump’s enforcement project includes a significant increase in deportations to “third countries”-- not the migrant’s country of origin. Deportation flights now go to more than a dozen countries, many in Africa, and the administration is negotiating with more than 60 additional countries. These governments accept deportees from the United States in exchange for millions of dollars.

There are several motives behind these third-country deportations.

First, they function as a fear tactic designed to promote self-deportation. Undocumented migrants may fear being sent to countries such as Uganda, where they do not speak the language and lack legal protections and social support.

Second, they allow the government to shut down asylum claims. Pending asylum cases can be canceled without a judicial hearing, and migrants can be deported to third countries. More than 8,000 asylum applications were canceled in 2025, and thousands of previously accepted refugee cases were reopened.

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Detention capacity has expanded dramatically, with new centers in scores of cities as well as remote areas. In Biden’s final year, detention centers could hold about 39,000 people. In Trump’s second term, capacity has risen to 70,000, with plans to hold 100,000 detainees per day.

To accelerate expansion, the administration is using $10 billion in U.S. Navy funds to build new detention centers in six states. It is also turning huge commercial warehouses into detention facilities. In Florida, a massive detention complex known as “Alligator Alcatraz” was built at a decommissioned airport surrounded by the Everglades. Trump has praised both the name and the location.

The administration also signed more than 1,400 cooperation agreements with local police departments. These so-called 287(g) agreements allow local police to function as a force multiplier for the federal government, facilitating the transfer of individuals detained for non-immigration crimes from local jails to ICE. Police departments can also rent jail space to ICE for migrant detention.

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Restrictions on where arrests can occur have been eliminated. Migrants can now be detained in workplaces, warehouses, gas stations, and parking lots of Home Depot stores, schools, hospitals, and churches. Arrests also occur in public spaces such as courthouses and airports, as well as during traffic stops. Street vendors and delivery workers are detained, abandoning their electric bicycles in the street.

Detentions inside courthouses have been especially shocking. Immigrants appear for routine interviews or check-ins and leave in handcuffs, on their way to detention centers. As the administration insists, “There are no longer safe spaces for illegals.”

Another ingredient of Trump’s deportation project is carrying out arrests with near-total impunity. New ICE employees watch a video of Trump senior advisor Stephen Miller declaring that agents have absolute federal immunity for actions taken in immigration enforcement. Agents have behaved accordingly.

Cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and Minneapolis have become combat zones where heavily armed federal agents patrol in masks and balaclavas without visible identification. The lack of identification increases brutality, as agents know they are unlikely to be held accountable.

Agents seize migrants on the street and place them in unmarked vehicles, effectively disappearing them until relatives locate them. Sometimes ICE rents commercial vehicles for raids, with agents emerging suddenly in parking lots like a Trojan horse.

The goal of all this is to create a culture of fear through super-aggressive tactics.

Use of deadly force is increasing. In Minneapolis, since January 1, two U.S. citizens have been shot and killed by federal agents. Their crime was observing and filming federal agents’ activities.

Another tactic to increase fear is denaturalization – stripping U.S. citizenship from immigrants who already have it. The responsible agency has a quota of at least 200 cases per month. There were only 24 denaturalization cases during Biden’s entire term, most involving former Nazis who had concealed their identities.

The main goal of this new denaturalization campaign is to increase insecurity among the 26 million naturalized citizens – half the foreign-born population – and push them toward self-deportation.

A constant in Trump’s project has been racial profiling to make arrests without targeting specific persons. Federal agents go door to door in residential neighborhoods in cities where concentrated enforcement operations are underway, searching for people of color to detain. They break down doors and drag residents into the street without warrants signed by a judge, thus violating the Fourth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

In these indiscriminate raids, hundreds of U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and refugees with official status or pending cases have been detained. The tactic is to detain first and ask questions later, or never.

A striking element of the mass deportation project has been acts of performative violence staged for television and social media, as part of the administration’s propaganda campaign. Treatment of protesters has been especially brutal. Trump officials label them “domestic terrorists.” Tear gas canisters, stun grenades, rubber bullets, and pepper balls are routinely fired directly at protesters’ faces.

A particularly cruel tactic is encouraging self-deportation through threats of family separation. Parents are asked whether they wish to be deported with their children, many of whom were born in the United States, or whether ICE should place the children with someone else or in foster care.

The Real Results of Trump’s Mass Deportation Campaign

The campaign to promote self-deportation has fallen short. The Trump administration claims that 2.5 million people were deported in the first year of his second term, including nearly two million who allegedly left voluntarily. Its own official data, however, show roughly 500,000 deportations and 40,000 voluntary departures – far below the goal of one million per year. Mexican sources report that 145,000 Mexicans left the United States in 2025, about 10 percent of them voluntarily.

This shortfall is not due to a lack of effort. ICE has launched a multimillion-dollar publicity campaign with the message, “Leave, or be pursued and captured.” It introduced an app called “CPB Home” that offers $3,000 and a free plane ticket to those who agree to leave voluntarily. The agency also released promotional videos, including one on Christmas Eve featuring a Santa Claus dressed as an ICE agent detaining migrants and urging others to self-deport.

The deportation campaign has not only fallen short of its goals, but has also steadily eroded Trump’s standing on immigration since January 2025.

On what was once his strongest issue, he now has a negative approval rating of 17 points in the latest national poll. Nearly two-thirds of the public believe ICE has gone too far in enforcing immigration laws, including 71 percent of independents and nearly one-third of Republicans. While about half of Americans support strict border enforcement, large majorities oppose detaining long-term undocumented residents with no criminal record and reject the use of masked agents or unmarked vehicles in enforcement operations.

Neither does the public support the construction of a secret police force in the United States: a heavily armed, paramilitary body operating as a personal instrument of the president, as ICE has increasingly come to resemble in Trump’s second administration.

In the end, public opinion remains the strongest check on extremism in immigration enforcement. The growing rejection of the mass deportation project is already reshaping the political landscape and could have major consequences in the elections ahead.

The pendulum appears to be swinging, and future historians may well remember this campaign as a dark, painful, but relatively brief chapter in the American experience.

1. Violence Subsides in Mexico

The wave of violence that broke out after the attempted arrest and killing of Mexico’s top drug lord, El Mencho, is now under control. Federal authorities, including the army and navy, managed to slowly remove road blocks and restore order in coordination with state police.

Decoded:

It could just be a calm before the storm. There is no clear successor for El Mencho yet. In Sinaloa, when El Mayo was captured, the violence only broke out about one and a half months after the events.

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2. Electoral Reform, Dead on Arrival

President Sheinbaum will propose a new electoral reform that, among other things, changes how PR seats are assigned in congress from closed lists selected by party leader, to open lists for voters to provide direct support.

Decoded:

Sheinbaum knows she lacks the votes to pass the reform, as two of the three parties in her coalition would be hurt by it. She introduced it so they would reject it publicly, giving her grounds to end the alliance. She believes her party is strong enough to govern alone.

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3. First Ever Negative FDI Figure in Mexico’s History

The last quarter of 2025 marked the first time since at least 1980 in which Mexico registered negative FDI. Despite a record-breaking 41 billion dollars for the whole year, 5 billion in FDI moved out of Mexico between October and December.

Decoded:

The main reason was higher dividends paid to foreign affiliates, driven by low interest rates, fiscal strategies, and the peso’s appreciation.

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4. Mexican Media Giant Going Under

TV Azteca, Mexico’s second largest TV broadcaster and one of Ricardo Salinas’s companies, has entered bankruptcy. The company owes creditors $500 million including unpaid interest. These include Cyrus Capital Partners, Contrarian Capital Management and Fidelity Investments.

Decoded:

If the bankruptcy process fails, TV Azteca could go under. This could open the door for a new owner: one who uses the TV concession in a less hostile way toward President Sheinbaum.

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5. Shakira Shatters Attendance Record

Colombian singer Shakira gave a free performance on Sunday on Mexico City’s central square. The event gathered 400 thousand people, which shattered the previous record of 300 thousand by Argentinian act Los Fabulosos Cadillacs.

Decoded:

Mexico and Shakira have a long love story. She was one of the first artists to give a free performance in Mexico City’s central square in 2007, she has performed special versions of her songs with Mariachi, and has sold out 13 concerts in one of Mexico’s largest stadiums.

1. Mexico’s Most Powerful Drug Lord Killed

Mexican authorities killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in an attempt to capture him. The cartel set off a wave of which lead to generalized fear, class suspensions, cancelled flights, and other disruptions. It has now been controlled.

Decoded:

When a cartel leader like this one is captured, three elements determine if there is generalized violence: a profitable organization, authorities with no capacity for territorial control, and a hierarchical organization with no clear successor. Only the first two are present.

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2. Trump Exempts Mexico from Tariffs. Again

The US government announced a new set of tariffs using a new law after SCOTUS declared the original tariffs unconstitutional. Trump later anounced Mexico would be exempt under USMCA.

Decoded:

It’s the second time Trump exempts Mexico, sending a clear message: Mexico is essential to the US. This should show Mexican USMCA negotiators that Mexico isn’t powerless when negotiating with Trump.

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3. Mexican Antitrust Authority Blocks Visa Deal

Payment processing giant Visa planned to acquire a 51% stake in one of its Mexican competitors, Prosa. The deal was struck down by Mexico’s new antitrust authority.

Decoded:

The deal would have severely limited competition. It would give Visa two out of three payment processors and two out of four clearinghouses in Mexico. It shows Mexico’s antitrust authority is working, despite fears of political interference, since it was reformed in 2025.

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4. Mexico to Cut Stratospheric Pensions

President Sheinbaum revealed that some former high-ranking government employees receive pensions ranging from 200 to 770 thousand USD anually. A new reform will cap pensions at 48 thousand per year, equivalent to half of the president’s salary.

Decoded:

This is a much needed reform. Public pensions represent 22% of the budget, and reducing them would free resources to spend on education or healthcare. While worker’s pensions are a basic necessity, those for high ranking officials are often due to corruption or political favors.

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5. Mexico to Look for Fracking Sources

President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will look for “minimal-impact” fracking technologies to increase domestic gas production, against her own campaign promise.

Decoded:

Mexico currently imports 75% of its gas from Texas, and requires local sources. The problem is that many of the remaining gas resources in Mexico can only be extracted using fracking. This would also help revitalize state-owned oil company Pemex, which is under financial strain.

A few hours ago, authorities confirmed that Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera, also known as El Mencho, the long-time leader of the New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), one of the most powerful criminal organizations operating in Mexico.

The news was quickly framed as a decisive blow against organized crime and as proof that sustained pressure from Trump on Mexico works. For months, the U.S. president has been urging Mexican authorities to confront drug cartels more aggressively.

In Mexico, however, the reaction to El Mencho’s death is more complex.

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For nearly a decade, Mexico followed a grim logic. When homicides increased, people felt less safe. When violence receded, public anxiety eased. The two indicators moved together, almost mechanically, from 2015 onward. That pattern broke just months after President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024. Since January 2025, Mexico’s homicide rate has fallen while the share of people who say they feel unsafe has climbed. The question is what’s behind this change.

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1. Measles Outbreak Continues in Mexico

The current measles outbreak in Mexico has reached over 9,000 cases and taken 29 lives. It’s part of a larger outbreak that began in Canada and has spread over all of North America, and some parts of South America.

Decoded:

The government hasn’t managed to get vaccination rate were it should be. Currently it’s at 75% when it should be at 95%. The first cases occurred in the border state of Chihuahua, where 90% of contagions were among the unvaccinated.

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2. Mexico and China Hold Trade Talks Amid USMCA Negotiations

Mexican trade officials met with their Chinese counterparts to discuss the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, which China wants removed. Mexico, on the other hand is asking, China to buy more from Mexico in an effort to even the balance of trade

Decoded:

Mexico has to do a balancing act. Tariffs on Chinese goods are meant to protect Mexican industry and appease the U.S., but China is Mexico’s second largest trading partner, and tariffed goods represent 9% of all Mexican imports. Mexico can’t afford to damage the relationship.

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3. Tax Collection Court Rulings on a Run

Mexico’s tax collection authority has become more litigious during this and the previous administration, due to various tax reforms. The effort paid off as it has won 80% of the money on the line.

Decoded:

This shows tax collection is not impossible for Mexican authorities if they try. During the last administration headed by the PRI, a center-right party, just 74% of the money on the line was recouped through trials.

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4. CBP Shoots First, Inflates Later

Last week, the FAA closed down the airspace over El Paso, Texas after CBP claimed it had shot down a cartel-operated drone. It turned out to be a party balloon.

Decoded:

Whether CBP knew the object’s true nature or not, this shows how US authorities are willing to pin the blame for just about anything on Mexico or drug cartels. Often, to cover for their own failures.

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5. Incentives for Mexican Cinema

Mexico announced a new 30% tax credit for film productions. This includes both local and foreign films produced in Mexico.

Decoded:

Salma Hayek, one of Mexico’s most recognized actresses, gave the announcement along with president Sheinbaum. This marks a turn from the former government which cancelled its film incentive program to cut expenses.

From Miami to Madrid, Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show was widely celebrated as a triumphant affirmation of Latin identity. Commentators described it as historic: a Spanish language performance on the most American of stages.

For Mexicans, the themes Bad Bunny addressed were not abstract. Roughly 11 million Mexican born people live in the United States, making Mexicans the largest national origin group among Latinos there.

And yet, something unexpected happened. While the show was applauded internationally, it did not land well among several segments of Mexican viewers.

To understand why, one must first understand who in Mexico watches the Super Bowl.

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1. Mexico Signs Critical Minerals Deal

Mexico and the US signed a mineral agreement aimed at reducing U.S. dependence on China. The deal looks to identify strategic minerals and the introduction of price floors for imports.

Decoded:

The agreement could leave Mexico worse off. Minimum prices are designed to fight price dumping from China, which could mean Mexico faces higher import costs. The agreement also specifies countries should finance mining projects, which could imply Mexico effectively subsidizing minerals for the US.

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2. Remittances Post Sharpest Drop Since 2009

Remittances from the US to Mexico were 62 billion USD in 2025 falling by 4.6% compared with 2024, marking the steepest annual decline since the global financial crisis.

Decoded:

Three shifts explain the drop: stricter U.S. borders have reduced migration flows, more returnees from the US to Mexico mean fewer senders, and older Mexican migrants in the US are sending less as they become more integrated in their new home.

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3. Tequila Giant and Mayor Clash Over Taxes

José Cuervo, Mexico’s largest tequila producer, and property of one of Mexico’s wealthiest men, accused the mayor of the municipality of Tequila of extortion after being asked to pay $3.5 million USD in local property taxes and operating permits. After a settlement, the sum was reduced to $1 million, but the mayor ended up being indicted for links to organized crime.

Decoded:

Even if crime links are confirmed, the case weakens already fragile local tax enforcement. Mexico collects just 0.2% of GDP in property taxes, compared to an OECD average of around 1%. Corporations that routinely resist local taxes now have a stronger narrative to challenge municipal collection.

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4. Sheinbaum’s Popularity Remains High, but Trending Down

President Sheinbaum’s popularity is at 69% for January according to the latest poll. This is higher than all her predecessors at this point, but it’s on a downward trend from it’s maximum of 85% in February of 2025.

Decoded:

This is tied to perception of the economy and public safety. Economic approval reached its highest figure in February of 2025 but is declining. February was also the first month with a net positive approval on public safety, which is back to negative.

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5. Historic Avocado Exports

Mexico exported 127,000 tons of avocados to the U.S. in January, the highest monthly figure on record. The surge was tied to the Super Bowl, as 9 out of 10 avocados consumed during the game were imported from Mexico.

Decoded:

While this surge is welcome for the Mexican economy, the avocado industry remains a touchy subject. The two main exporting states have organized crime activity, which Trump is using to pressure Mexico. Back in 2024, the U.S. used security concerns as an excuse to halt exports for 10 days costing Mexico $75 million USD.

The deadliest drug crisis in modern American history has a geographic cliff. Tens of thousands of people die each year from synthetic opioids in the United States, but once you cross the border into Mexico, the epidemic virtually disappears.

This is not a rhetorical flourish. It is one of the strangest and least examined asymmetries in global drug markets: Mexico is a central node in the fentanyl supply chain that feeds the United States, yet fentanyl consumption inside Mexico remains marginal. While more than 40,000 people in the U.S. die annually from overdoses linked to synthetic opioids, Mexico recorded just 113 overdose deaths from 2015 to 2024.

The question is why. What happens in Mexico that causes fentanyl overdoses to vanish, even though fentanyl is clearly trafficked throughout its territory?

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1. Mexico Shifts Cuba Aid Strategy

President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico will stop sending crude oil to Cuba. Instead, aid will come in the form of food, household goods, and basic supplies. Mexico had been one of the island’s last remaining oil suppliers.

Decoded:

The government frames this as a sovereign policy shift, but the timing points elsewhere. Trump says he personally asked Sheinbaum to cut oil shipments. He also threatened tariffs on any country that continues supplying fuel to Cuba. This looks less like a rethink of Cuba policy, and more like a reaction to pressure.

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2. Exports to the U.S. Hit a Record

Mexican exports to the United States rose 5.3% year-on-year in November, setting a new record and reinforcing Mexico’s position as the U.S.’s top trading partner.

Decoded:

This reflects a strategic choice by the United States. Goods imported from Mexico contain more U.S.-made components than imports from any other major supplier. Faced with growing trade deficits, Washington increasingly prefers deeper integration with Mexico over continued dependence on China.

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3. Powerbroker Steps Aside, Not Away

Adán Augusto López, leader of the ruling party’s caucus in the Senate, resigned from the post after a series of high-profile scandals.

Decoded:

The most serious allegation dates back to his time as governor, when his chief of police was later identified as the leader of an organized crime group. Still, López is far from sidelined. He keeps his Senate seat and has been assigned new responsibilities within the party.

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4. Billionaire Reaches Deal, Pays Up

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego agreed to pay 1.8 billion pesos in outstanding tax liabilities. Under Mexican law, voluntary payment comes with a 37% discount. Salinas has already made an initial payment of 600 USD.

Decoded:

For years, Salinas claimed paying his tax debt would bankrupt his companies. This settlement makes clear that wasn’t true.

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5. The 40-Hour Week Gets Gutted

Mexico approved the gradual implementation of a 40-hour workweek. The reduction in hours will be phased in through 2030. The approved bill also gives only one day off, as opposed to the original vision of two mandatory days off.

Decoded:

The reform concedes heavily to business groups. The bill dropped the two days off proposal after claims it would hurt competitiveness. The same argument was used against minimum-wage increases, which had no measurable impact even after a 154% real increase since 2018.

Mexico is still widely imagined as a country that drinks heavily. A place of tequila shots, spring break debauchery, and endless nights designed for joy and escape.

But that image is increasingly out of sync with reality. Even as Mexico continues to be marketed abroad as a permanent party, something quieter and far more interesting is happening beneath the stereotype: Mexicans, especially the young, are drinking much less. And the reasons why challenge nearly everything outsiders think they know about Mexico.

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1. U.S. Business Leaders Back Mexico in USMCA Fight

US business leaders have emerged as unexpected allies of Mexico in defending the USMCA against Trump. In public hearings on the treaty before the US department of commerce, they’ve highlighted how Mexico supports over 13 million U.S. jobs and the deep economic integration with it.

Decoded:

This dynamic shows that Mexico has leverage it could use, if it chose to wield it. USMCA isn’t just a trade pact; it underpins integrated supply chains that benefit U.S. firms as much as Mexican ones.

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2. Mexico’s Prisoner Pipeline

Mexico transferred 37 members of organized crime to the United States, bringing the total under President Sheinbaum to 92. U.S. authorities labeled several of them “narcoterrorists.”

Decoded:

These are not formal extraditions, which take years and involve courts, but fast-tracked handovers designed to keep Trump satisfied. What he doesn’t quite grasp is that Mexico is running out of top cartel figures to send, and is increasingly sending just lower-ranking criminals.

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3. Sheinbaum Cheers Canada’s Reality Check

Sheinbaum praised remarks by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos, where he argued that the so-called “rules-based international order” has long been a convenient fiction for powerful countries. Sheinbaum called the speech “very good” and said it fit the moment.

Decoded:

Applause is cheap. Canada can afford to confront Washington. Mexico can’t. Years of failing to build internal demand mean Mexico has far less room to maneuver, no matter how much Sheinbaum nods along.

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4. The Economist’s propaganda

The Economist published a note entitled “Mexico’s mighty left-wing government is floundering”. It argued that President Sheinbaum has failed to deliver on security.

Decoded:

The Economist is propagandizing. Sheinbaum has implemented a successful anti-extortion plan in the western state of Michoacán, and has reduced homicides significantly thanks to a new security strategy. The Economist’s negative coverage of Sheinbaum’s left government contrasts with the magazine’s coverage of former center-right president Enrique Peña, whom the publication enthusiastically praised even before taking office.

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5. Peso Pluma’s U.S. Takeover

Mexican artist Peso Pluma announced 31 U.S. tour dates, spanning major cities like New York and Los Angeles as well as smaller markets such as Raleigh, NC and Rogers, AK. He is one of the leading figures of corrido tumbado, a genre blending traditional corridos with hip-hop and trap.

Decoded:

The tour underscores how deeply Mexican pop culture has penetrated the U.S. market. Beyond music, it reflects Mexico’s growing role as a cultural exporter for Gen Z: less through institutions, more through platforms, virality, and hybrid identities that travel easily across borders.

In Mexico, a small group of powerful organizations controls a substance that reaches nearly every household. They have divided up the country, fixed prices, and defended their territories with remarkable discipline.

The substance is not cocaine or fentanyl. The groups behind it are not criminal syndicates operating in the shadows. They are legal companies, fully licensed, publicly regulated, and deeply embedded in the Mexican economy.

What they control, however, matters far more to ordinary Mexicans than any illegal drug.

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1. Mexico Demands Colonial Apology — Again

Mexico’s president is renewing a long-standing demand that Spain formally apologize to the country for abuses committed during the colonial era. Madrid has, once again, refused.

Decoded:

Spain’s stance is increasingly isolated. Other former colonial powers have moved to address similar histories: the UK and the Netherlands have issued apologies, and Canada paired apologies with financial compensation.

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2. Fentanyl Deaths on the Decline

In 2026, overdose deaths caused by synthetic opioids in the United States fell to roughly 40,000—their lowest level since 2020. The drop has prompted the Mexican government to claim its crime-control strategy is working.

Decoded:

The decline began in 2023, well before Mexico toughened its security policy against cartels in October 2024. The more decisive factor lies elsewhere: China cracked down on the companies that sell fentanyl precursors.

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3. Electoral Reform in Limbo

An electoral reform has been under discussion since late last year, after the president appointed a commission to explore possible scenarios. The commission delivered its conclusions last week—but no reform bill has been introduced.

Decoded:

There is no draft and no defined proposal. Yet academics and pundits are being widely quoted saying the reform will eliminate proportional representation and place the electoral institute under government control. This is speculation presented as fact.

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4. Public Health Sleight of Hand

Mexico will roll out a new national ID card for any Mexican seeking access to public healthcare. Officially, the policy is framed as the first step toward unifying the country’s fragmented public health systems into a single, integrated model.

Decoded:

The medical ID is a statistical maneuver. Mexico’s poverty measurements classify someone as having healthcare access if they self-report it. Issuing the ID will boost reported coverage, and mechanically reduce poverty figures, even as hospital capacity remains unchanged.

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5. Mexico Replaces Its UK Ambassador

Josefa González-Blanco will step down as Mexico’s ambassador to the UK amid 16 labor harassment complaints. She will be replaced by Mexico’s former attorney general, Alejandro Gertz Manero.

Decoded:

González-Blanco built unusually strong ties with the Mexican community in the UK by hosting frequent social and cultural events. Gertz’s appointment, by contrast, reads as political courtesy after his removal as attorney general. With him taking over, embassy outreach is expected to become markedly less festive.

Trump wants the world to believe he has a simple foreign policy: identify a villain, apply pressure, force compliance, and claim victory. With Mexico, the villain is supposed to be “the cartels”—criminal organizations he routinely blames for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans who consume fentanyl in the United States.

At first glance, the story seems straightforward. Cartels are violent, foreign, and easy to demonize. They operate south of the border, traffic drugs north, and offer a clean explanation for a complex crisis.

But the Mexican case quickly turns into a puzzle.

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