After Venezuela, Is Mexico Next?

Why the question misses the real power dynamics shaping U.S.–Mexico relations

When the United States carried out a military operation against Venezuela’s government, the shockwaves traveled far beyond Caracas. In Mexico, the reaction was immediate: fear. Not because Mexico resembles Venezuela, but because the narrative used to justify the intervention sounded uncomfortably familiar.

According to U.S. officials, Venezuela was no longer just an authoritarian regime. It was a narco-state. A country allegedly hijacked by criminal networks, whose president, Nicolás Maduro, was framed not as a political adversary but as a drug trafficker. Once that label was applied, sovereignty became negotiable.

That framing matters, because within days, Donald Trump publicly declared that “something will have to be done about Mexico” arguing that drug cartels control the country.

For many observers, the implication was obvious: if Venezuela was intervened under the banner of fighting narcotrafficking, why not Mexico?

The fear is understandable, but wrong.