Bleak Growth, Cartel Lawyers, and Sui Generis Housing Reform

Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters.

1. El Chapo’s Lawyer vs. Sheinbaum

Mexcio’s President is pursuing legal action against Jeffrey Lichtman—attorney for drug lord “El Chapo” and his son —after he accused her administration of being the cartel’s “PR arm.”

Decoding it:

Lichtman’s theory? The government took down his client to help a rival cartel. It’s slick legal spin—less about facts, more about muddying the waters.

2. U.S. Slaps Steep Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes

Trump reinstated a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes—jolting a $2.8 billion export engine that supplies nearly 70% of U.S. tomatoes—citing “dumping” as the excuse to shield local growers.

Decoding it:

Mexico’s best allies: the U.S. Chamber and the National Restaurant Association—both know greenhouse-grown, vine-ripened Mexican tomatoes can’t be swapped for Florida’s green-picked. The flavor gap is real.

3. Turning Abandoned Homes into Housing Policy

Mexico has 6 million abandoned homes—often poorly located or lacking services. A new government program allows informal occupants to legally acquire them.

Decoding it:

Previous administrations sued squatters. This plan avoids the courtroom—cheaper, faster, and much more humane.

4. Recession in the Rearview

Mexico’s Central Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 0.6% to a razor-thin 0.1% —with a possible dip into negative territory. Investors aren’t optimistic.

Decoding it:

Changes in U.S. policies could weigh heavily on Mexico’s export-dependent industrial sector. Federal budget constraints also have limited fiscal stimulus, reducing public spending’s ability to support growth.

5. World Cup Dreams —Out of Reach for Mexicans

Early pricing shows World Cup tickets in Mexico could hit $3,300—higher than in Canada ($2,600) or the U.S. ($2,350).

Decoding it:

By median wages, a Mexican needs 7 months' work for one ticket. A Canadian? 18 days. An American? 15. Same Cup—widely different access.