Cartel Boss Killed, Visa Blow, & Fracking Push
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters.
1. Mexico’s Most Powerful Drug Lord Killed
Mexican authorities killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in an attempt to capture him. The cartel set off a wave of which lead to generalized fear, class suspensions, cancelled flights, and other disruptions. It has now been controlled.
Decoded:
When a cartel leader like this one is captured, three elements determine if there is generalized violence: a profitable organization, authorities with no capacity for territorial control, and a hierarchical organization with no clear successor. Only the first two are present.
2. Trump Exempts Mexico from Tariffs. Again
The US government announced a new set of tariffs using a new law after SCOTUS declared the original tariffs unconstitutional. Trump later anounced Mexico would be exempt under USMCA.
Decoded:
It’s the second time Trump exempts Mexico, sending a clear message: Mexico is essential to the US. This should show Mexican USMCA negotiators that Mexico isn’t powerless when negotiating with Trump.
3. Mexican Antitrust Authority Blocks Visa Deal
Payment processing giant Visa planned to acquire a 51% stake in one of its Mexican competitors, Prosa. The deal was struck down by Mexico’s new antitrust authority.
Decoded:
The deal would have severely limited competition. It would give Visa two out of three payment processors and two out of four clearinghouses in Mexico. It shows Mexico’s antitrust authority is working, despite fears of political interference, since it was reformed in 2025.
4. Mexico to Cut Stratospheric Pensions
President Sheinbaum revealed that some former high-ranking government employees receive pensions ranging from 200 to 770 thousand USD anually. A new reform will cap pensions at 48 thousand per year, equivalent to half of the president’s salary.
Decoded:
This is a much needed reform. Public pensions represent 22% of the budget, and reducing them would free resources to spend on education or healthcare. While worker’s pensions are a basic necessity, those for high ranking officials are often due to corruption or political favors.
5. Mexico to Look for Fracking Sources
President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will look for “minimal-impact” fracking technologies to increase domestic gas production, against her own campaign promise.
Decoded:
Mexico currently imports 75% of its gas from Texas, and requires local sources. The problem is that many of the remaining gas resources in Mexico can only be extracted using fracking. This would also help revitalize state-owned oil company Pemex, which is under financial strain.