Forest Wars, Trump's Druglord Pardon & Prosecutor Fallout
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters
1. Sheinbaum Clears the Deck for Her Security Playbook
Mexico’s attorney general, Alejandro Gertz Manero, has been forced to resign. President Sheinbaum announced he’ll be replaced by Ernestina Godoy, her former Mexico City attorney general, current presidential legal advisor, and trusted members of her inner circle.
Decoded:
Gertz’s exit removes the biggest obstacle to replicating Sheinbaum’s Mexico City security model at the national level. In the capital, tight coordination between police and prosecutors helped drive a 38% drop in homicide rates. Gertz, known more for stalled high-profile cases, wasn’t going to deliver that. Godoy could.
2. Cartel War Sparks Forest Fires in Northwest Mexico
Roughly 281 hectares of forest in northwest Mexico have burned in the first half of 2025 — not from drought or heat, but from explosives dropped by rival Sinaloa Cartel factions using small planes and drones.
Decoded:
Cartel factions are fighting in the mountains because illegal lumber has become a key revenue stream. Rather than let rivals control the sawmills and profit from timber, groups are burning forests and facilities to cut off their competitors’ cash flow.
3. Trump Pardons Convicted Drug Trafficker to Influence Honduras Election
President Trump issued a full pardon to Juan Orlando Hernández, Honduras’s former president, who was serving a 45-year sentence in the U.S. for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel. The pardon came just days after Trump endorsed Nasry Asfura — Hernández’s party ally — ahead of Honduras’s presidential election.
Decoded:
Both the endorsement and the pardon were direct attempts by Trump to influence the election. They also highlight the hypocrisy in his drug-war rhetoric: he claims to fight cartels while pardoning a convicted trafficker for electoral purposes.
4. Wealthy Mexicans Turn to Miami
Mexican buyers ranked fourth among foreign purchasers of Miami real estate in the third quarter of 2025, cementing the city’s status as a favored destination for affluent Mexicans seeking property abroad.
Decoded:
For wealthy Mexicans, it’s an easy sell: geographical proximity to Mexico, and prestige and low taxes. On that last point, purchases by foreigners can be structured through LLCs, which offers additional tax benefits. Rich Mexicans are already known for skirting taxes at home, a city which offers those benefits so openly is a natural fit.
5. Mexico’s Massive Book Fair Kicks Off
The Guadalajara International Book Fair (FIL) — held in Mexico’s third-largest city — opened on Saturday. The FIL is Latin America’s largest book fair and one of the world’s most influential literary events, hosting thousands of publishers and more than 3,000 activities each year.
Decoded:
People often ask why Mexico’s most important book fair isn’t in Mexico City. It’s because the FIL was created — and is still run — by the University of Guadalajara. Jalisco’s state government funds about half of the university’s budget, giving it the financial autonomy to build the FIL into a global cultural powerhouse. Most state universities, which depend largely on federal funding, simply couldn’t sustain an event of this scale.