Fuel Theft, Deportations, and Monopoly Skies
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters
1. Pemex’s Billion-Dollar Leak
During Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office, around $1.5 billion USD worth of fuel was stolen from pipelines owned by Pemex, Mexico’s state-oil company. More than 9,000 illegal taps were detected, most of them concentrated in the central state of Hidalgo, a hotspot for fuel theft.
Decoded:
The government knows how fuel theft happens and there are some strategies: reinforcing pipelines, stopping criminal organizations from infiltrating Pemex, and more surveillance. The problem has been the poor execution, which has exposed lack of state capacity in that area.
2. Trump Pushes “Self-Deportation” Scheme
The Trump administration announced it will now offer undocumented migrants $3,000 and a plane ticket if they agree to leave the U.S. voluntarily. Of the roughly 145,000 Mexicans deported in 2025, around 15,000 have chosen to voluntarily deport.
Decoded:
The prospect of dealing with ICE seems to be the primary reason migrants choose self-deportation. This trend has increased, with about double the number of migrants leaving voluntarily during the second half of the year.
3. Airline Merger Raises Competition Red Flags
Mexican low-cost carriers Volaris and VivaAerobus announced plans to merge. If approved, the combined airline would control roughly 69% of Mexico’s passenger air traffic, reshaping the country’s aviation market.
Decoded:
This year, Mexico replaced its autonomous competition regulator with a new institution operating under the Department of the Economy. If the merger is rejected, it will be a clear signal that the new institution is serious about antitrust policy.
4. Mexican Giant Sues Over U.S. Tariffs
Grupo Bimbo, the largest bread producer in Mexico and the U.S., filed suit against the Trump administration over losses tied to new tariffs—including the 25% levy on Mexico and Canada and the 145% tariff on Chinese imports.
Decoded:
Bimbo argues the tariffs are unconstitutional, and recent Supreme Court hearings in similar cases suggest the justices may be receptive. Even if Bimbo wins, however, major questions remain about how compensation would work, according to SCOTUS Justice Amy Coney Barret.
5. Government Boosts Film Funding
Mexico’s government announced a 16% increase to a tax stimulus that allows private contributions to Mexican film projects to be deducted from tax bills—the largest increase in a decade. The reform also raises the maximum deductible contribution from $1.1 million to $1.4 million USD.
Decoded:
The increase follows a strong year for Mexican cinema. Domestic films saw revenues rise 15% and audiences grow 9.5% compared to 2024, even as total box office revenue fell 4%. The move suggests the government sees film not just as cultural policy, but as economic stimulus.