Mexican Super Bowl, Tequila Taxation, & Bad Mineral Deal
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters.
1. Mexico Signs Critical Minerals Deal
Mexico and the US signed a mineral agreement aimed at reducing U.S. dependence on China. The deal looks to identify strategic minerals and the introduction of price floors for imports.
Decoded:
The agreement could leave Mexico worse off. Minimum prices are designed to fight price dumping from China, which could mean Mexico faces higher import costs. The agreement also specifies countries should finance mining projects, which could imply Mexico effectively subsidizing minerals for the US.
2. Remittances Post Sharpest Drop Since 2009
Remittances from the US to Mexico were 62 billion USD in 2025 falling by 4.6% compared with 2024, marking the steepest annual decline since the global financial crisis.
Decoded:
Three shifts explain the drop: stricter U.S. borders have reduced migration flows, more returnees from the US to Mexico mean fewer senders, and older Mexican migrants in the US are sending less as they become more integrated in their new home.
3. Tequila Giant and Mayor Clash Over Taxes
José Cuervo, Mexico’s largest tequila producer, and property of one of Mexico’s wealthiest men, accused the mayor of the municipality of Tequila of extortion after being asked to pay $3.5 million USD in local property taxes and operating permits. After a settlement, the sum was reduced to $1 million, but the mayor ended up being indicted for links to organized crime.
Decoded:
Even if crime links are confirmed, the case weakens already fragile local tax enforcement. Mexico collects just 0.2% of GDP in property taxes, compared to an OECD average of around 1%. Corporations that routinely resist local taxes now have a stronger narrative to challenge municipal collection.
4. Sheinbaum’s Popularity Remains High, but Trending Down
President Sheinbaum’s popularity is at 69% for January according to the latest poll. This is higher than all her predecessors at this point, but it’s on a downward trend from it’s maximum of 85% in February of 2025.
Decoded:
This is tied to perception of the economy and public safety. Economic approval reached its highest figure in February of 2025 but is declining. February was also the first month with a net positive approval on public safety, which is back to negative.
5. Historic Avocado Exports
Mexico exported 127,000 tons of avocados to the U.S. in January, the highest monthly figure on record. The surge was tied to the Super Bowl, as 9 out of 10 avocados consumed during the game were imported from Mexico.
Decoded:
While this surge is welcome for the Mexican economy, the avocado industry remains a touchy subject. The two main exporting states have organized crime activity, which Trump is using to pressure Mexico. Back in 2024, the U.S. used security concerns as an excuse to halt exports for 10 days costing Mexico $75 million USD.