Mexico’s Crime Reduction Miracle Has a Dark Secret

Behind the most dramatic crime drop in Mexican history lies a prison crisis that nobody is talking about.

Over the last 15 months, the number of daily homicides in Mexico has fallen by 41%. To be honest, the reduction is so large that it is still not entirely clear what is causing it. However, the most common explanation is theshift in security strategy implemented by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum since she took office in October of 2024.

There are doubts about the numbers. As we have reported in Mexico Decoded, it is likely that part of the reduction can be explained by the false reclassification of homicides as other types of crimes, whether accidents, disappearances, or other violent offenses. However, in recent months it has become evident that nearly all crimes are declining, including disappearances. The reduction in homicides appears to be real.

The news is excellent, but it hides a serious problem unfolding in Mexico, one that the international press is not covering. That is why I decided to dedicate this week’s essay in Mexico Decoded to discussing it.