Is Mexico’s Decline in Homicides Too Good to Be True?

A complement to my Project Syndicate piece

Last week, I published a note in Project Syndicate showing that Mexico has reduced its daily homicide count by 41% over the past 18 months, along with several hypotheses about why this change is occurring. The piece became the most-read article on the site for several days.

A small but vocal group of readers accused me of lying. In their view, the government data is manipulated and the reduction simply does not exist.

So today, I want to dedicate my weekly essay at Mexico Decoded to explaining why this reduction cannot be entirely dismissed as statistical manipulation, and to presenting the data that makes that case.