Negative FDI, Narcoviolence Controlled, & Shakira's Mexican Love
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters.
1. Violence Subsides in Mexico
The wave of violence that broke out after the attempted arrest and killing of Mexico’s top drug lord, El Mencho, is now under control. Federal authorities, including the army and navy, managed to slowly remove road blocks and restore order in coordination with state police.
Decoded:
It could just be a calm before the storm. There is no clear successor for El Mencho yet. In Sinaloa, when El Mayo was captured, the violence only broke out about one and a half months after the events.
2. Electoral Reform, Dead on Arrival
President Sheinbaum will propose a new electoral reform that, among other things, changes how PR seats are assigned in congress from closed lists selected by party leader, to open lists for voters to provide direct support.
Decoded:
Sheinbaum knows she lacks the votes to pass the reform, as two of the three parties in her coalition would be hurt by it. She introduced it so they would reject it publicly, giving her grounds to end the alliance. She believes her party is strong enough to govern alone.
3. First Ever Negative FDI Figure in Mexico’s History
The last quarter of 2025 marked the first time since at least 1980 in which Mexico registered negative FDI. Despite a record-breaking 41 billion dollars for the whole year, 5 billion in FDI moved out of Mexico between October and December.
Decoded:
The main reason was higher dividends paid to foreign affiliates, driven by low interest rates, fiscal strategies, and the peso’s appreciation.
4. Mexican Media Giant Going Under
TV Azteca, Mexico’s second largest TV broadcaster and one of Ricardo Salinas’s companies, has entered bankruptcy. The company owes creditors $500 million including unpaid interest. These include Cyrus Capital Partners, Contrarian Capital Management and Fidelity Investments.
Decoded:
If the bankruptcy process fails, TV Azteca could go under. This could open the door for a new owner: one who uses the TV concession in a less hostile way toward President Sheinbaum.
5. Shakira Shatters Attendance Record
Colombian singer Shakira gave a free performance on Sunday on Mexico City’s central square. The event gathered 400 thousand people, which shattered the previous record of 300 thousand by Argentinian act Los Fabulosos Cadillacs.
Decoded:
Mexico and Shakira have a long love story. She was one of the first artists to give a free performance in Mexico City’s central square in 2007, she has performed special versions of her songs with Mariachi, and has sold out 13 concerts in one of Mexico’s largest stadiums.
A good read, as usual.
1. Mencho: "It could just be a calm before the storm". As you say, like the violence in Sinaloa after the Mayo capture. Perhaps the CJNG's cellular/franchise structure might work to limit infighting, but violence could well erupt in its Jalisco heartland.
4. TV Azteca: Salinas Pliego has sufficient assets to negotiate bankruptcy protection. He would never let go of the broadcaster, due to its political value. If it loses money, it operates as an influence-wielding loss leader for his other business interests, which is how most media assets operate in Mexico. And don't forget that he harbours political ambitions, if not personally (which he sometimes hints at), then at least as a kingmaker.