Trump Points South, Deadly Train, Tariff Windfall
Mexico Decoded’s weekly briefing makes sense of the news that matters
1. Trump Threatens Mexico After Maduro’s Capture
U.S. armed forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Sunday. Shortly afterward, President Trump suggested that Mexico’s cartels could be “next.” He added that, while he has a good relation with Mexico’s president, it’s the cartels, not her, who run the country.
Decoded:
This shows how the U.S. is redefining intervention. Drugs are the stated justification, a difficult subject for Mexico, but the real motive was Venezuela’s oil. This changes the calculus for Mexico which is central to U.S. reindustrialization plans, giving it a much stronger position with respect to the U.S.
2. Senate Halts Decision on U.S. Troops in Mexico
The Mexican Senate cancelled a session in which it was going to allow U.S. Navy SEALs and Army special forces to enter Mexico.
Decoded:
The timing changed everything. Mexico’s president can’t afford to allow U.S. troops into Mexico in the wake of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and President Trump’s threats to Mexico. The president’s base is wary of U.S. interventions, and allowing it would make her lose legitimacy.
3. Interoceanic Train Accident Exposes Construction Flaws
Mexico’s new interoceanic rail line—designed to link the Pacific and Atlantic as an alternative to the Panama Canal—derailed on December 28, leaving 14 dead and 98 injured. The rail was built and managed by the Navy.
Decoded:
This disaster was not unforeseeable. Mexico’s federal auditing office had already warned of structural weaknesses in the segment where the accident occurred. Known flaws included high slopes and curves, and rail misalignment due to terrain conditions.
4. Import Tax Revenues Skyrocket
Revenue from Mexico’s import taxes rose 19% in real terms in 2025 compared to the previous year — far exceeding the 10-year average growth rate of 11%. Total collections reached 8.7 billion USD.
Decoded:
This is the clearest fiscal sign that Mexico’s new trade policy is biting. The surge reflects two deliberate choices: raising tariffs on Asian goods, especially from China, and tightening customs surveillance.
5. Mexico’s Agenda for 2026 Is Set
Sheinbaum’s administration will balance foreign and domestic policy. At home, the 2027 elections loom large as the government is pushing for a new electoral reform. Abroad, the USMCA negotiations are set to begin this month.
Decoded:
The main factor will be Trump’s unpredictability. A high-risk political year that could result in high volatility for the peso’s value