Why Is Fear Rising if Mexico's Murder Rate Is Falling?
Crime data shows improvement, yet millions feel less safe. The contradiction is reshaping Mexico’s politics.
One of the most puzzling trends in Mexico’s new administration is something few outside the country would expect: crime is going down, yet fear is rising.
For nearly a decade, Mexico followed a grim logic. When homicides increased, people felt less safe. When violence receded, public anxiety eased. The two indicators moved together, almost mechanically, from 2015 onward. That pattern broke just months after President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024. Since January 2025, Mexico’s homicide rate has fallen while the share of people who say they feel unsafe has climbed. The question is what’s behind this change.
